Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We have requested Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to offer our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for near 15 years and has intensive data of all the commodity and choice markets.

Michael steadily seems on a number of enterprise networks together with Bloomberg information, Fox Enterprise, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Enterprise, and Bloomberg TV. He’s additionally a visitor on First Enterprise, which is a nationwide and internationally syndicated enterprise present.

Gold Futures

Gold futures within the June contract is at present buying and selling at 1,295 an oz unchanged for the buying and selling week because the development stays sideways. If you’re lengthy a futures contract, I’d place the cease loss underneath main assist which now stands at 1,284 as an exit technique as I nonetheless have a bullish bias in direction of gold, however the threat/reward shouldn’t be in your favor to take a place at the moment. Gold costs are buying and selling slightly below their 20 and 100-day shifting common because the development is decrease to blended as costs have gone nowhere during the last three months. Volatility stays common as costs topped out final month barely above the 1,350 stage as I nonetheless assume longer-term gold costs look engaging. Nonetheless, all of the curiosity stays within the U.S. fairness market which is hovering proper close to all-time highs as soon as once more. For the bullish momentum to proceed costs have to interrupt the March 25th excessive of 1,330 in my view so be affected person and let’s have a look at what subsequent week’s commerce brings as I do imagine bullish traits throughout the board will begin to develop quickly.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Silver Futures

Silver futures within the July contract is buying and selling at 15.05 bouncing off of main assist across the 15.00 stage final week as I feel a potential short-term backside is at hand. I shouldn’t have any suggestions within the valuable metals, however I do imagine costs will transfer greater although the IMF lowered world progress earlier at the moment placing strain on costs, however then rallied in direction of the closing bell. Silver costs are buying and selling proper at 20 and 100-day shifting common because the development is blended. Nonetheless, the chart construction will begin to enhance in subsequent week’s commerce therefor the chance/reward will turn into extra in your favor to enter right into a bullish place. Traditionally talking as I’ve talked about in lots of earlier blogs, I feel silver costs are low-cost as I can’t take a brief place and if we are able to get some bullish information, I feel that might spark a big rally to the upside. In case you check out platinum, it hit a contract excessive in latest days, and I feel that may also begin to assist silver costs coupled with the truth that the ratio between silver and gold is also traditionally large. Volatility on the present time stays comparatively low so preserve an in depth eye on this market as we could possibly be concerned in a bullish place quickly.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: LOWER

Pure Gasoline Futures

Pure fuel futures within the Might contract is at present buying and selling at 2.66 nonetheless hovering close to main assist on the 2.60 stage as snowy circumstances have entered a number of Midwestern states as soon as once more serving to assist costs within the brief time period. In case you check out the day by day chart costs, have been buying and selling between 2.60 / 2.90 during the last six months as this has been caught in a really lengthy tight consolidation sample and I nonetheless do imagine the breakout will likely be to the upside. In case you check out the day by day chart we proceed experiencing greater lows as that may be a bullish technical indicator so look to play this to the upside because the chart construction will begin to enhance within the subsequent week’s commerce therefor the chance/reward can be in your favor at the moment. Volatility in pure fuel stays very low, nevertheless as soon as we enter the summer time months that scenario might change in a short time coupled with the actual fact if China and the USA agree on commerce that may be very bullish in direction of fuel as they’ve acknowledged up to now that may be one of many main commodities that may be bought.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW

S&P 500 Futures

The S&P 500 within the June contract settled final Friday in Chicago at 2896 whereas at present buying and selling at 2903 as costs have damaged out to ranges that we have now not seen since early October. If you’re lengthy a futures contract, proceed to put the cease loss underneath the 2 week low which now stands at 2844 because the chart construction will enhance day by day as I see no cause to be brief this market. For my part, I do imagine costs will break the all-time excessive which was hit on September 21st at 2961 as essentially and technically talking this market stays very sturdy. The volatility on the present time could be very low because the Vix or the worry index because it’s popularly referred to as is buying and selling at 14 which traditionally talking is low and tells you greater costs are anticipated. The S&P 500 is buying and selling above its 20 and 100-day shifting common because the development stays sturdy to the upside as we had been solely about 2% away from making a recent all-time excessive & if we are able to get any bullish shock subsequent week with some main companies that might add extra gasoline to the fireplace.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW

Espresso Futures

Espresso futures within the Might contract is buying and selling at 93.00 a pound as costs nonetheless look to be forming a bottoming out sample in my view. Espresso inventories stay at 2.493 million luggage as we’re nonetheless proper close to a four three/four 12 months excessive as stock ranges have been the principle offender for these depressed costs as we’re nonetheless hovering proper close to a 14 12 months low. The chart construction is excellent on the present time as costs actually have gone nowhere for weeks because it nonetheless appears to be like to me that a potential backside was created on April 2nd at 91.25 because the breakout to the upside stands on the four week excessive which is at 98.70 which could possibly be touched on any given day because of the low volatility. Espresso costs at the moment are buying and selling proper at their 20-day however nonetheless under their 100-day shifting common which stands on the 104 stage as I can not think about this volatility goes to stay at these traditionally low ranges for for much longer. Superb climate circumstances within the international locations of Vietnam and Brazil that are the 2 largest espresso producers on the earth additionally continues to place strain on costs. Nonetheless, I do imagine all of this poor basic information has already been mirrored within the value as I nonetheless assume the draw back is minimal.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

If you’re in search of a futures dealer be happy to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will likely be more than pleased that will help you together with your buying and selling or go to www.seeryfutures.com

What do I imply once I discuss chart construction and why do I feel it’s so vital when deciding to enter or exit a commerce? I outline chart construction as a sluggish grinding up or down development with low volatility and no chart gaps. Lots of the nice traits that develop have excellent chart construction with many low proportion day by day strikes over a course of not less than four weeks thus permitting you to enter a market permitting you to put a cease loss comparatively shut on account of small strikes thus lowering threat. Charts which have violent up and down swings are usually not thought of to have stable chart construction as I like to put my stops at 10-day highs or 10-day lows and if the charts have a decent sample that may enable the dealer to attenuate threat which is what buying and selling is all about and if the chart has massive swings your cease will likely be additional away permitting the opportunity of bigger financial loss.

Corn Futures

Corn futures within the December contract completed unchanged at three.89 a bushel which is taken into account the brand new crop and is at present being planted within the midwestern a part of the USA as I’ll now deal with this contract with the remainder of the rising season. The WASDE crop report was launched this week stating that carry over ranges elevated barely now over 2 billion bushels up about 200 million greater than anticipated. Nonetheless, frigid and snowy climate is coming into the western corn belt that might delay some planting as we at the moment are actually coming into a climate market my opinion. On the present time, 2% of the corn crop has been planted principally within the southern a part of the USA as we will likely be in full swing subsequent week in my view as we’ll plant round 92 million acres this 12 months as we might produce one other excellent crop except a drought develops. The final climate drawback we skilled was in 2012, and that was devastating particularly to corn as costs went as much as the eight.50 stage. That rally began in mid-June as we had disastrous yields throughout the midwestern a part of the USA and that scenario might happen once more as I am very reluctant to take a brief place at these depressed costs. I will likely be taking a look at a potential bullish place quickly, and in the event you take a look at the weekly chart, there could possibly be a quadruple backside that has occurred across the three.80 stage so look to play this to the upside as I feel the chance/reward is in your favor to be bullish.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW

Cotton Futures

Cotton futures within the July contract is ending the week on a optimistic observe up 126 factors at 79.00 after settling final Friday in New York at 78.59 persevering with its bullish momentum. I’ve been recommending a bullish place from across the 76.70 stage, and in the event you took that commerce, the cease loss has now been raised to 77.41 because the chart construction is superb because of the low volatility. The cotton crop report was launched earlier within the week and was considerably bearish as costs bought off, however now have rallied to a five-month excessive because it appears to be like to me that costs will check the subsequent stage of resistance between 81 / 83 quickly. Cotton costs are buying and selling above their 20 and 100-day shifting common because the development is to the upside as we at the moment are coming into the very unstable spring and summer time months and if any climate scenario develops you would see costs flip sharply greater in my view. I will likely be taking a look at including extra contracts to the upside probably in subsequent week’s commerce as the chance/reward stays in your favor so keep lengthy.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures within the July contract is buying and selling at 12.92 a pound nonetheless hovering proper close to a 5 week excessive as I will likely be recommending a bullish place if costs on the 13.03 stage whereas then inserting the cease loss on the contract low which was hit on January third at 11.99 as the chance is round $1,200 per contract plus slippage and fee. The volatility in sugar stays comparatively low because it appears to be like to me that costs have lastly bottomed out and in the event you check out crude oil that commodity continues to maneuver up day by day hitting a five-month this week which is supporting sugar costs as properly. Sugar costs are buying and selling above their 20 and 100-day shifting common because the development is to the upside because the chart construction may also begin to enhance in subsequent week’s commerce therefor the financial threat may also be lowered, nevertheless I want to give this commerce some room as I do assume costs will retest the 13.50 stage quickly.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW

Orange Juice Futures

Orange juice futures within the Might contract is buying and selling decrease for the ninth consecutive session down one other 70 factors at 106.45 as costs have collapsed during the last a number of weeks. Superb climate circumstances within the state of Florida coupled with the truth that we have now the most important carryover stage that we have seen in years as essentially and technically talking this market stays detrimental. My solely comfortable commodity suggestion is a bullish cotton commerce, but it surely does look to me that costs will retest September 28th, 2015 low of 103.45 and if that’s breached we might break 100 within the coming days forward. Orange juice costs are buying and selling far under their 20 and 100-day shifting common because the frost season is now behind us as I see no cause to be bullish juice. Juice costs are experiencing oversold territory, but it surely appears to be like to me that any kickback will in all probability be one other promoting alternative and in case you are brief my suggestion can be to remain brief and proceed to put a trailing cease loss.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Dwell Cattle Futures

Dwell cattle futures within the June contract settled final Friday in Chicago at 120.35 whereas at present buying and selling at 121.45 proper close to a 3 week excessive. I’ve talked about cattle in lots of earlier blogs as I nonetheless imagine greater costs are forward and in case you are lengthy a futures contract proceed to put the cease loss underneath the 2 week low standing at 118.70 as I nonetheless imagine costs will check the March 22nd excessive of 124.90 probably in subsequent week’s commerce. Cattle costs at the moment are buying and selling above their 20 and 100 day shifting common because the development stays to the upside as there’s nonetheless plenty of uncertainty in regards to the devastation that occurred particularly within the state of Nebraska so proceed to put the correct cease loss as I nonetheless imagine there’s important room to run to the upside. One other spherical of snow and blizzards has entered the Nice Plains space as soon as once more, and that’s additionally serving to assist costs coupled with the truth that we’re coming into the sturdy demand season for pork and beef as hog costs are proper close to a contract excessive as properly. If the 118.70 stage is damaged, it could be time to exit transfer on and look forward to higher chart construction to develop, however on the present time, it appears to be like to me that one other leg to the upside is underway.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Buying and selling Concept

In case you comply with this rule you should have an opportunity of being profitable over the course of time, in the event you don’t comply with this rule you can be certain to lose your cash shortly. This rule is easy Do Not OVERTRADE EVER for that is a simple technique to lose all of your capital shortly. My definition of over buying and selling is risking an excessive amount of cash on any given commerce, for instance in case you are buying and selling a $100,00zero greenback account and also you place a gold commerce at the moment you must restrict your loses to 2% of the account worth which on this case is $2,00zero which lets you be improper on many trades and nonetheless be round to play one other day. In futures and choice buying and selling you should have shedding trades that’s for sure so ensure you handle these losses and transfer on to a different commerce.

If you’re in search of a futures dealer be happy to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will likely be more than pleased that will help you together with your buying and selling or go to www.seeryfutures.com

Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Fb.com/seeryfutures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Cellphone #: 630-408-3325
mseery@seeryfutures.com

There’s a substantial threat of loss in futures, futures choice and foreign currency trading. Moreover, Seery Futures shouldn’t be answerable for the accuracy of the knowledge contained on linked websites. Buying and selling futures and choices is Not acceptable for each investor. My opinion on this weblog are for common data use solely and are usually not supposed as a suggestion or solicitation with respect to the acquisition or sale of any futures or choice contracts.

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